F1 star DENIED seat after Red Bull reshuffle. So what's next?

Sergio Perez was finally put out of his misery at Red Bull this week, being let go after more than a year of rumors over his future.

That exit being finalized allowed the team to complete their team lineup for 2025, promoting Liam Lawson to Perez's seat and bringing Isack Hadjar up into their junior team.

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Red Bull's decision has also confirmed the axe of one F1 star in 2025, with Franco Colapinto losing out on a seat due to recent driver changes.

Admittedly, back-to-back DNFs and multiple crashes are not the best way to sign off a season, or the qualities that attract F1 teams to a driver, but his pace at Williams did demonstrate potential that does not deserve to be ignored quite yet.

So, what are the chances of Colapinto returning to F1? And does it depend on how Red Bull’s new drivers fare in 2025?

Will Colapinto return to Williams?

Following Colapinto and Williams’ whimpering end to 2024, you would be forgiven for forgetting how impressive the Argentine driver was on his debut.

Not only did he score crucial points in Baku and Austin, but also appeared to learn from his mistakes in a way his predecessor Logan Sargeant failed to do.

However, Colapinto endured a terrible run of results at the end of the season, some his fault whilst others were outside of his control, but all of them definitely lead to despair for the mechanics back in the Williams garage.

It is this kind of risk that may have made F1 teams nervous about signing Colapinto, regardless of the pace he has demonstrated this year.

According to the 21-year-old, he hopes to remain with Williams as their reserve driver throughout 2025, but a full-time drive with the team may be difficult to achieve.

Colapinto’s return to Williams is entirely dependent on Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz's place at the Grove-based squad, and given the calibre of both drivers it is unlikely they will be sacked anytime soon.

In fact, Colapinto’s only chance of regaining that Williams seat is if either driver leaves of their own volition.

Will Colapinto join Red Bull?

Perhaps a spot at VCARB or Red Bull could open up for Colapinto in 2025, but the chances of signing for either of these teams also feels unrealistic.

Lawson and Hadjar’s respective promotions demonstrate Red Bull’s re-commitment to its junior programme to determine their F1 lineup.

Even if Lawson follows a similar fate to Perez in 2025, it is more likely he will be replaced by Hadjar or Tsunoda if their recent driver signing saga is anything to go by, with VCARB expected to follow suit.

Team chief Helmut Marko has also tipped junior driver, and Formula 2 debutant Arvid Lindblad, to be their next champion after Max Verstappen, and if he continues on his current trajectory we could see him in F1 leaving no space for Colapinto.

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Formula 2 is also another barrier blocking a F1 return, with this years’ cohort emphasising that teams are willing to take a gamble on younger drivers.

Without a drive next year Colapinto risks being forgotten altogether by F1 teams, especially if the next batch of F2 stars capture their interest in 2025.

Alpine also remains an option for Colapinto, who are no strangers to a brutal axing and could bring him in if Jack Doohan fails to perform as expected.

For this to happen however, Colapinto needs a bit of luck as there is no clear route back onto the grid for the young star, and it looks unlikely he will make full-time F1 return.

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