Verstappen rumors spell trouble for Mercedes race winner

Toto Wolff's public flattery of Max Verstappen has done very little to dispel rumours that the champion may switch from Red Bull to Mercedes.

Since Lewis Hamilton announced his exit from the team, Wolff has made it abundantly clear that Verstappen is his number one target, and despite the Dutchman’s protestations he remains persistent in his pursuit.

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Wolff's dream is steadily becoming a reality, as he mends bridges with Max's father Jos Verstappen - whose relationship by contrast with Christian Horner seems beyond repair.

Whilst a move for 2025 has been ruled out, Wolff has recently revealed that after talks with the Verstappen camp, a move for 2026 and beyond is still a ‘possibility’.

Mercedes however appear settled on their lineup for next year, with the team expected to announce Kimi Antonelli alongside George Russell ahead of the Italian Grand Prix.

However, if Verstappen can be convinced to join Mercedes in 2026 or 2027, where does this leave Antonelli and Russell? And crucially, who will Toto Wolff decide to replace?

Antonelli heralds a brand new Mercedes future

Wolff is determined to remedy previous mistakes with Antonelli, as Verstappen slipped from his grasp and into the Red Bull family at the start of his career.

Whilst Antonelli is not in contention for the Formula 2 championship, he has nevertheless displayed promise during his junior career, already a champion in both the Italian F4 and Formula Regional series'.

In F2, the Italian has claimed impressive race wins, most notably his maiden victory in the sprint at Silverstone where he emulated Hamilton by claiming a win in tricky conditions, eight seconds ahead of P2.

The 18-year-old’s results will have vindicated Mercedes’ choice to bypass F3 and promote Antonelli straight to F2, a decision entrenched in trust of the youngster’s abilities.

Mercedes have also adopted a nurturing responsibility with Antonelli that underscores Wolff’s relationship with the star.

Antonelli revealed that he phoned Wolff after feeling downbeat about qualifying 10th at Silverstone, and credited his boss with restoring in him the confidence that helped him achieve his first victory.

The pair possess an almost familial bond that is not too dissimilar to that between Hamilton and Ron Dennis when the former initially joined McLaren - the legendary F1 boss even referring to his relationship with the champion as 'surrogate father and son'.

The Hamilton resemblance does not end there for Antonelli, who could be positioned to fight for race wins and perhaps a title during his first season in F1.

His pedigree suggests Antonelli could be a special talent and, bar a few inevitable rookie errors, prove a challenge to Russell’s status at Mercedes.

Crucially, if Verstappen remains an option for 2026/27, Russell may find himself in a vulnerable position.

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Antonelli’s arrival ensures Russell’s vulnerability

Russell would have undoubtedly been ecstatic when he found out Hamilton announced his departure. Finally it would be his chance to step up and lead Mercedes, to spearhead a championship campaign with him at the centre.

But that hasn’t quite materialised. If Mercedes had opted for Carlos Sainz or the stop-gap option of Valtteri Bottas whilst they waited for Antonelli, then Russell would have been the undisputed number one.

However, Antonelli is an unknown quantity for Russell, and the Italian’s close relationship with Wolff could be a detriment to his career.

There is the possibility that Antonelli could fail to impress at Mercedes, with Russell providing the experience and consistency to secure race wins and maybe even a title.

Yet, when you take the example of Oscar Piastri at McLaren the Australian proved his ability quickly, and is now on par with Lando Norris.

Assuming that Antonelli is capable of repeating this feat, Mercedes will be presented with a difficult choice if Verstappen suddenly becomes interested in the team.

Whilst Russell has openly stated he would love the opportunity to go up against Verstappen in the same car, Antonelli’s promotion may mean he never has the chance.

Russell should be alarmed by Wolff’s interest in Verstappen

Regardless of how content Mercedes are with their driver line-up come 2026/2027, it is difficult to imagine Wolff passing up on the opportunity to hire Verstappen.

The Dutchman could be a four-time world champion or more by then, and as Ferrari have demonstrated by replacing Carlos Sainz with Lewis Hamilton, experience conquers all.

So, if Verstappen does join Mercedes, who will the team keep alongside him?

Wolff’s commitment to Antonelli and their relationship, signifies a bond that will be difficult to sever at Mercedes.

Russell will undoubtedly believe he is their best option and will have faith that the team will remain loyal to him, but he should still be concerned by Wolff’s confidence in Antonelli and commitment to Verstappen.

It is too early to determine whether Russell will completely crumble under this pressure, rise to the challenge or be tempted by another team.

However, what this scenario does indicate is that regardless of whether Verstappen joins and they are confronted with this choice, whichever way their driver line-up goes they are in an incredibly strong position.

Mercedes’ driver market dilemma, whilst spelling trouble for Russell, is a statement of intent to rival F1 teams, that they will be back in the hunt for a world title, and have the talent to back it up - especially if they master the 2026 regulations.

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