Will Baku favour Mercedes more than Monaco?

Nobody in the world could argue against Monaco being anything but a disaster for Mercedes after losing the lead in both F1 title races to Red Bull.

A lack of pace all weekend and more wretched luck for Valtteri Bottas, in particular, left the seven-time champions red-faced as Max Verstappen took an easy win to dethrone Lewis Hamilton at the top of the pile.

But with a vastly different street-track layout coming next up in Baku, a street version of Spa if you will due to the high-speed-low-speed spread, will Mercedes rediscover its form in Azerbaijan?

Which Mercedes problems need to be solved?

The chief issue that has to be addressed ahead of each street circuit for Mercedes is the inability to get the Pirelli tyres into the optimum operating window.

At Monaco, this never happened and contributed to Hamilton's pace throughout qualifying, where he finished seventh.

It is easier said than done though as the track surface at street tracks are usually smoother and less abrasive than a conventional purpose-built circuit due to the asphalt.

The reduction in friction means the warming up of tyres is much more difficult and is part of the reason tyre wear is also lower.

The W12 also seemed less compliant over the kerbs at Monaco compared to the Red Bulls and Ferraris. This needs to be rectified ahead of the turn five-six chicane and the final two corners in Baku.

The obvious thing is to then not make any mistakes. Clean pit stops are also needed, especially against Red Bull that is renowned for its slick, fast routines, whilst set-up has to go in the right direction from the off. Bottas getting it right just before qualifying at Monaco will be too late in Baku.

Why Baku will help

Of course, Baku allows for much higher speeds than at Monaco, both on the long, long 'straight' but also through corners.

This allows more load to be put through the tyres and ultimately more temperature. Wear will also increase but Red Bull and Mercedes have been mostly even on that front.

With the increased temperatures, Mercedes should be able to find the operating window of the tyres and push towards a return to form.

This is much more of a power circuit that should promote the Mercedes cars back ahead of the Ferraris, so at the absolute worst the team will expect to finish third and fourth.

Historically, Mercedes has had a lot of pace in Baku even if results have not always reflected this given some of the bad luck experienced, from Bottas' last-gasp puncture to Hamilton's headrest dislodging.

And amongst everything, there is the usual chaos that comes at Baku. Even if all seems lost, a well-timed safety car can pull the field together and flip the order around. We should return to the battles of the first four races of the season.

BUT... what about Red Bull's flexi-wings?

Six-tenths of a second. For reference, in Imola, if Hamilton was six tenths slower in qualifying he would have dropped from pole to eighth.

Six-tenths is the bonus at Baku Mercedes expects Red Bull's flexi-wings to provide.

The reason is simple. Whereas in previous years Red Bull would have run a skinny wing to reduce drag down the pit-straight, with a flexi-wing they won't need to as the drag is reduced by the surface area of the wing decreasing, whilst still having a high amount of downforce as the wing returns to a rigid, unloaded state through the corners.

Around Baku, where the layout constantly changes from low-to-high downforce, this is a super-weapon and one that could leave Mercedes floundering.

There is a reason that Toto Wolff suggested the weekend could get "messy".

Whatever happens on or off track, Mercedes must return to form and cut the Red Bull momentum before Verstappen and Horner really start to sit comfortably.

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