Can Alonso succeed on his Formula 1 return?

Fernando Alonso will make his much-anticipated return to Formula 1 racing at the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix at the end of March.

Alonso has not competed in F1 since his final year at McLaren in 2018, after initially stating he would return only when a victory-contending race seat emerged.

So what are his chances at the newly re-branded Alpine team this season? Will it be a successful return for the two-time world champion?

How strong can Alpine be?

As is the case for the majority of the time in Formula 1 in modern times, you are only as good as the car you are given.

Fifth in last season's championship was not a disastrous result for Renault when you consider how competitive the team was against Racing Point, McLaren and Ferrari.

With the large carryover of parts between last season and the new campaign, the pecking order should remain relatively similar. Alpine, though, may have a small advantage.

With McLaren switching to Mercedes engines from Renault and Ferrari overhauling its own power unit, both teams used up its development tokens in doing so.

This means that with the change to the aerodynamics for 2021, Alpine could gain the upper hand in this area, as well as time on the tracks the Renault team lost out on last year. If they can do that, more podiums should be on the way.

Alonso to lead the team forward?

Nobody is under any illusions that Alonso will instantly seek out where the team can improve. He is a natural leader and is not adverse to instantly turning a team around.

He took Ferrari by the scruff of the neck in 2010 after the Scuderia's difficult 2009 season. Even at McLaren, with all the troubles it had in the turbo-hybrid era, he was able to lead it to results more spectacular than the car warranted.

But for anyone to recognise Alonso's preservation of his unquestionable talent so far in his career, he naturally must beat team-mate Esteban Ocon across the season.

That is not to say Ocon is a bad driver or will be a pushover. But after witnessing Daniel Ricciardo comfortably emerge victorious in their head-to-head last season, then Alonso would have to follow suit to call his comeback a success.

Then there are actual race results. Wins seem out of the question unless there are upsets such as the victories for Pierre Gasly and Sergio Perez last year.

A handful of podiums emerging from that tight midfield battle and a top-five finish in the drivers' standings seems to be a realistic target.

Behind the scenes troubles?

A potential stumbling block for the progress of the whole team, not just Alonso, is the recent behind-the-scenes reshuffle.

Cyril Abiteboul, the man behind the Renault resurgence, is out. So too Jérôme Stoll. In have come Laurent Rossi and Davide Brivio, although everything has taken a while to officially be confirmed.

This has all come about since Luca de Meo took over as CEO of Groupe Renault, and with him the decision to rebrand to Alpine.

But the worry is there could be more than meets the eye. Abiteboul was expected to stay on as Alpine CEO, was involved in the hand-over process and then all of a sudden was ousted.

If there is any trouble behind the scenes then Alonso's chances, indeed for the team as a whole, could be hampered drastically with such a tight midfield allowing for no issues.

Will there be any rustiness?

Alonso has kept himself busy since leaving F1, with world titles and Le Mans 24 Hour wins in the World Endurance Championship, victory in the Daytona 24 Hour race, an attempt at the Dakar Rally and another tilt at the Indianapolis 500.

He was seen on the limit on a demonstration run in his championship-winning R25 in Abu Dhabi at the end of last season, while he also took part in the young driver test at the track and a private test in Bahrain in preparation.

But with only three days of pre-season testing to be split between Ocon and himself, it will be a tall order for total acclimatisation to be achieved ahead of the first race of the season.

But for one of the greatest talents of a generation, what is believed to be a competitive car beckons, so we should hopefully see Alonso back on the podium which, if achieved, would be his first since the 2014 Hungarian Grand Prix.

For this season, though, arguably results are secondary compared to Alonso acclimatising himself back into F1 given the importance being placed on the team hitting the ground running for 2022 under the highly anticipated new regulations.

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