Three-way driver FIGHT will define F1 future for two teams

The title fight between Max Verstappen, aiming to become only the sixth man to win four drivers’ championships, and Lando Norris, hoping to become one of the most unexpected champions in seven decades of history, will be at the forefront of fans’ minds when the final stretch of the 2024 Formula 1 season kicks off in Austin, Texas next weekend.

This, after all, is the first genuine battle for the crown since Verstappen’s unprecedentedly ferocious clash with Lewis Hamilton in 2021, and the peculiar dynamic of a talented but unfancied outsider trying to hunt down the established frontrunner in faster machinery before time runs out is a fascinating setup.

But there are still wars to be waged elsewhere on the grid, and one three-way fight in particular should ignite in the United States

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With Daniel Ricciardo dropped by the RB team, seemingly ending his F1 career for good, Liam Lawson will step up to the top tier motorsport for the second time.

The Kiwi impressed in his short spell as a stand-in for the injured Ricciardo last season, and now has six races to make a case for himself, both in terms of securing a full-time drive with RB and potentially jumping ahead of Sergio Perez and poaching the second seat at the senior Red Bull team alongside Verstappen.

With Perez still in situ (and holding a contract until the end of 2025, for now at least) and Yuki Tsunoda coming to the end of his third season in F1, all three have a quarter of a season to demonstrate they deserve the top job more than their rivals.

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What has Helmut Marko said about the Red Bull situation?

Perez’s woeful form – he has not finished in the top five in the last 12 grands prix – has put him on the back foot. The contact renewal that seemed to secure his future when it was signed in late spring now appears worth less than the paper it was written on.

Tsunoda has delivered a solid, consistent season in which he has simultaneously outclassed Ricciardo to the extent that Australian’s career looks over, while also minimising his own tendency to lose concentration and makes errors.

And Lawson is rightly highly enough by the Red Bull hierarchy that he could leap beyond both of his fellow contenders despite his limited experience.

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“Tsunoda is a candidate to drive alongside Max in 2025,” Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko told F1 Insider this week. “The remaining races of this season will decide what our driver pairings will look like for next year.”

“I can very well imagine that a junior driver will drive alongside Max. We decided to compare Lawson and Tsunoda. They have the same material, the same conditions and each now has six races to prove that he is the better one.”

If Red Bull do opt for either of the “junior” drivers, Tsunoda or Lawson, then Perez will likely follow Ricciardo out of the F1 exit door, with a new youngster likely to be signed for RB in his stead.

Whichever of the three options is selected come the end of the season, Red Bull will make clear what the future strategy for both its teams is going to be.

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What will the impact of Red Bull’s decision be?

The choice for the Red Bull seat, firstly, will make clear what the team thinks is the best approach to get the most out of Verstappen, and what is most likely to keep him happy in the long run.

Verstappen and his father Jos have spoken with Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff about a potential future switch already this year, and if Red Bull are unable to arrest their rapid slide towards the midfield, the prospect will only become more appealing.

The Dutchman has always seemed to enjoy working with Perez, who played a significant role in securing his maiden championship in that 2021 finale in Abu Dhabi, and the Mexican’s retention would indicate that the team is prioritising maintaining a status quo with the Verstappens in the hopes of fending off interest from elsewhere.

Switching him out for a rookie would perhaps mean one of the younger pair of drivers is able to deliver better results, but risk compromising the plan with Verstappen.

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And the decision over who races at RB will define what the ongoing purpose of the junior team is. Where once it was a proving ground for young drivers to develop and make a case for a promotion, it has latterly become a holding pen for talented racers the team hasn’t rated highly enough (Tsunoda) and drivers discarded elsewhere looking for any route to a full-time seat (Ricciardo).

If Lawson jumps the queue, it will beg the question what the point of continuing with Tsunoda, given a relative rookie will have been valued more highly than him. Likewise, if Perez manages to hang on, RB will appear to be little more than a bottleneck for young drivers who can’t progress forward.

The title fight between Verstappen and Norris is the most important story between now and the season finale, of course.

But this secondary scrap will determine both the individual futures of all three of these drivers, and also whether or not Red Bull is building the most sensible collaborative strategy for its two teams in the years to come.

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