Horner’s toughest Red Bull test still to come

Earlier this year it seemed impossible that Christian Horner would remain in his position as Red Bull team principal much longer.

Once revered as one of the most successful and powerful figures in motorsport, Horner’s reputation and career appeared to be at risk when a Red Bull employee made an official complaint accusing the 50-year-old of alleged inappropriate behaviour.

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The team launched an investigation, and public speculation about Horner’s behaviour was rampant.

But the independent investigation Red Bull commissioned cleared Horner of any wrongdoing, and now an appeal put forward by the complainant has been rejected too.

Horner appears to have come through the process unscathed - certainly on a professional level at least, given he retains a role he seemed certain to lose.

That does not mean that Horner now faces an easy time leading Red Bull, however. The team’s form has waned significantly since the beginning of the season, and various off-track fractures in its hierarchy threaten its long-term future.

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Correcting the development path

Horner’s most immediate concern will be retaining both championships. After beginning the season in the same scintillating form with which they delivered the most dominant season in Formula 1 history last year, Red Bull have been reeled by rivals McLaren and Mercedes and have now won just three of the last nine grands prix.

Though they still hold advantages in both the drivers’ and constructors’ standings, the former in particular remaining comfortably in Max Verstappen’s favour, a pair of triumphs come the season finale in Abu Dhabi is far from guaranteed.

McLaren possess the fastest car as things stand and will be favourites to finish first unless Red Bull can develop the RB20 well. The lack of improvements made to the car could possibly indicate that Red Bull’s overall concept is approaching its peak, which could necessitate more comprehensive changes to arrest the slump in results.

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Verstappen’s uncertain future

Perhaps the most pressing long-term concern for Horner is Verstappen’s future. Despite being tied down to his current contract with the team until the end of 2028, the triple world champion has been publicly discussed as a future transfer target by Mercedes boss Toto Wolff, and the relationship between Horner and both Verstappen and his father Jos seemed to take a significant dent during the most tense portion of the early season investigation.

No F1 driver contract is watertight – deals can and have been torn up in the past when one side decides they are not willing to continue under certain circumstances.

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If Red Bull fail to address their development difficulties and are unable to demonstrate to Verstappen that they represent his best chance of winning in F1’s new regulation era from 2026 onwards, then the Dutchman’s head could be turned.

Aside from the prestige of signing arguably the world’s greatest racing driver, Wolff would no doubt relish snatching away rival Horner’s most prized asset.

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Second seat trouble

Sergio Perez may be piloting the second Red Bull until the end of 2024 at least, but beyond that his future is also very uncertain.

The Mexican’s wretched form in 2024 so far is compromising his team in both title fights, and despite signing a contract taking him until at least the end of 2025 only a few months ago, he will almost certainly be dropped at the end of the campaign unless he makes a significant improvement.

What Horner and Red Bull decide to do with Perez also has a direct influence on the careers of Yuki Tsunoda, Daniel Ricciardo, and Liam Lawson.

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Technical restructure

With Adrian Newey leaving the team for an as yet undetermined rival and sporting director Jonathan Wheatley making a shock switch to Audi to become their team principal when they enter F1 in 2026, Red Bull must make sweeping changes to a hierarchy which had been stable for over a decade prior to this year.

With Newey responsible for building cars which have driven Red Bull to seven drivers’ championships and Wheatley a significant leadership figure both in the term and the paddock as a whole, Horner is losing two figures vital to the team’s functioning.

How they are replaced will go a long way in dictating to what extent Red Bull are successful in the long-term future.

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Powertrains project

Red Bull are also facing possibly their most daunting technical project since they first built a Formula 1 car – designing their own engine.

Following Honda’s (subsequently U-turned) decision to pull out of F1, Red Bull announced the creation of Red Bull Powertrains, an in-house engine supplier for both the senior F1 team and the junior RB squad.

Though assistance will come from a partnership with American automotive giant Ford, Red Bull must hit the ground running with its engine if it is to match the performance of much more experienced rivals Ferrari and Mercedes from 2026 onwards.

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