Why Red Bull MUST make one of the biggest decisions in their F1 history now

In a matter of just a couple of months, Red Bull have gone from the most dominant team in the history of Formula 1 to facing the prospect of a genuine fight for the both the divers’ and constructors’ championships this season.

The Milton Keynes-based squad won all but one race in 2023 and started this year’s campaign off in similarly impressive fettle, but have faltered over the past six rounds, winning just twice as their RB20 has dropped behind McLaren’s MCL36 in terms of outright speed.

Triple world champion Max Verstappen has been causing collisions on circuit and chaos on team radio, the team seems to be struggling with its development path, and their advantage in both title races is receding.

Now, they also have to make one of their most important decisions since they joined F1 two decades ago.

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Verstappen’s rambunctious ripostes to race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase’s instructions and pleas may have dominated chatter around Red Bull at last weekend’s Hungarian Grand Prix, but the bigger problem they face sits in the other side of the garage.

New lows for Perez

Sergio Perez endured yet another woeful weekend in Budapest, crashing out of the first part of qualifying in damp conditions on Saturday before recovering to seventh in the race on Sunday. Seventh was no doubt a pretty solid recovery drive, but if he is constantly having to recover every Sunday, he isn’t really making much progress.

The Mexican has taken a paltry 16 points from the last six race weekends, during which time he has never qualified high enough to benefit Verstappen strategically as a rear gunner, and is causing hugely significant financial cost to Red Bull by inexplicably crashing out of sessions so frequently.

Let’s put it bluntly: Perez, who has dropped to a lowly seventh in the drivers’ standings despite piloting what has been the fastest or second fastest car at every circuit so far this season, is now actively hindering the team’s chances of retaining the constructors’ championship, Verstappen’s prospects of winning a fourth successive title, and the extent to which the car can be developed throughout the rest of the season.

On Friday in Budapest team principal Christian Horner revealed he had invited Perez to his home in order to talk through the problems which have led to such woeful form, but by Saturday a forlorn Perez was trotting out the same vague intentions to improve that have been heard so often since the start of the season.

“It hurts,” a visibly despondent Perez sighed. “It hurts to let your whole team down. But I’m determined more than ever to get back to where we belong. I just have to shut the external noise down and focus on the job. Our time will come, unfortunately it’s just one after the other. I’m conscious of that. We need to change quickly.”

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But the use of the plural we/our doesn’t really wash given the poor results are so clearly down to Perez’s errors and lack of self-belief. And now, after months of publicly backing him, it appears the team has come to the same conclusion.

“I think I have shown that I am very patient,” Horner told Viaplay after Perez’s latest crash. “But this was really the last thing he and the team needed. Any discussions we have with him will, of course, take place internally and not in front of the media. But of course, we can’t run on one leg.”

Familiar Ricciardo Red Bull steps

Indeed, Red Bull ran Kiwi youngster Liam Lawson in the RB20 last week in what was billed as a filming day but was no doubt an assessment of his ability behind the wheel, in a similar fashion to the test Daniel Ricciardo conducted last season before being given Nyck de Vries’ seat at AlphaTauri.

Red Bull are clearly in the process of making a decision about who drives their second car for the rest of the season following the summer break, which comes after next week’s race in Belgium.

They have four options: stick with Perez, return to Ricciardo, promote Yuki Tsunoda, or throw in Lawson.

It seems increasingly clear, and more and more justified, that Perez will be gone by the time the season recommences at Zandvoort at the end of August.

Maintaining the status quo and hoping that Perez somehow improves of his own accord despite all the evidence that is incapable of doing so would be uncharacteristically indecisive from Red Bull.

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What they do instead, though, will define far more than the short-term future. Not only will whoever pilots the second car play a significant part in both title fights, they will make clear how Red Bull views the future of both its F1 teams and play a key role in defining Verstappen’s future.

One of the reasons Perez was offered an extension to his Red Bull deal only a couple of months ago is that Verstappen enjoys working him, having benefitted from his support in his title fight with Lewis Hamilton in 2021.

Now that Verstappen’s relationship with the team is on much rockier ground than in previous years – thanks both to their drop off in performance and the controversy surrounding Horner which threatened to erupt into war earlier this year – giving him a team-mate of whom he does not approve could risk driving a further wedge between both parties.

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And if for example Ricciardo was shifted into Perez’s seat over Tsunoda, the Japanese having far outperformed the Aussie so far this season, then that would beg the question what on Earth the ongoing purpose of the junior RB team is, given it has up until this point functioned as a proving ground for young drivers to demonstrate they are worthy of a shot at the big time.

If on the other hand Red Bull opt for Lawson, are they really committed to him for the long-term, or making clear that they are merely hoping to tread water between now and the end of the campaign before sourcing a new, experienced second driver from outside their current stable for 2025 and beyond?

Perez’s woeful output is a millstone around the necks of Red Bull right now. However Horner and Helmut Marko decide to remedy the situation will give a very clear indication of the brand’s long-term future in F1, and could have a big influence on Verstappen’s decision-making too.

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