Could Hamilton regret Ferrari F1 call after recent developments at Mercedes?

When Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari was confirmed before the start of the season, it was dramatic and surprising, but it also felt very logical.

Since fresh regulations were introduced in 2022, the Brackley-based outfit had struggled to get to grips with them, and as the F1 circus paraded around Asia, Australia, and then Monaco in the early rounds of the season, Hamilton's switch made increasingly more sense. Mercedes continued to flounder and Ferrari emerged as the closest competitors to Red Bull with a pair of victories to their famous name.

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Even as recently as the Monaco Grand Prix, as Mercedes notched what was, at the time, their best points tally of the season with P5 and P7, Ferrari were partying to the tune of their win and double podium.

Now, just two race weekends and a Mercedes upgrade later, whilst the tables may not have turned, they have certainly tilted in favour of the Silver Arrows.

That said, the move still is, by most accounts, reasoned. Carlos Sainz fans excluded, who doesn’t want to see the seven-time world champion line up in the iconic red car?

But every time he sees a huddle of Maranello mechanics in his mirrors on the grid, every time he muscles past a rosso corsa-painted car, might there be some doubt creeping in for Hamilton as his Mercedes exit draws gradually closer?

Have Mercedes leapfrogged Ferrari?

Before the Canadian Grand Prix, Mercedes had not come close to outscoring Ferrari. They still trail their Italian rivals by 119 points in the standings, but that deficit has been reduced by 37 over the past two race weekends.

In Montreal, Mercedes brought upgrades which fired them into contention, having not finished above P5 in 2024 before the event.

Wet weather further levelled the playing field and George Russell’s pole - just the team’s third since the beginning of 2022 - was a mark of progress.

After pole's in Hungary in the previous two seasons, Mercedes then fell away, but this time, they are backing up P1 in qualifying with strong race pace. Consecutive P3-P4 finishes in Canada and Spain and suddenly the confidence that they are finally on the correct upgrade path means Mercedes continue to diminish Ferrari’s advantage.

Ferrari's own dip in form has helped Mercedes, of course. A double DNF in Canada for the team was followed up by a measly P5 and P6 at the Spanish Grand Prix, with team-mates Charles Leclerc and Sainz involved in an off-track spat after the race after some heated moments on it.

Mercedes’ ominous track record

Both Mercedes and Ferrari will, barring a disastrous winter, score podiums in 2025. But, Hamilton, a seven-time world champion, is in the hunt for more than that.

When Mercedes become part of the 39-year-old’s past, he will be leaving behind the team with the best track record in modern F1, with whom he has scored six drivers’ and seven constructors’ championships.

With new engine regulations lurking, the Brackley team seem confident that they can once again master a radical power unit overhaul, as they did with the introduction of hybrid engines in 2014.

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Those regulation changes saw Ferrari slide to fourth, and the Scuderia did not pose a significant challenge again until 2017. If that pattern is repeated in 2026, Hamilton’s initial Ferrari contract will long have elapsed.

Even the Brit’s first title with McLaren in 2008 was powered by a Mercedes engine. It is a venerable partnership and could be something for Hamilton and his new team to take inspiration from in 2025 and beyond.

Ferrari’s long drought has left the Tifosi parched

Incidentally, Ferrari’s last world constructors’ championship win came in 2008; Kimi Raikkonen’s 2007 title remains their latest drivers’ conquest. It means that Ferrari’s current 16-year championship drought matches their longest-ever period without winning the drivers’ or constructors’ title (1984-1998).

Not since the years of Michael Schumacher have Ferrari dominated a season. Mercedes, meanwhile, not long ago, rewrote the domination playbook with their unprecedented consecutive titles.

F1 has been a sport of era's more so than ever in the 21st century. First, it was Ferrari, then Red Bull, then Mercedes, and now Red Bull again. Perhaps it is Ferrari’s turn to return to the top. Maybe Mercedes never will again.

What is certain is that Hamilton will be fuelled by a burning desire to return the Scuderia to glory and deliver for the loyal Tifosi, some of whom will never have seen a Ferrari driver clinch the title.

A dream realised in the red car

For years Hamilton has admitted that it was his childhood dream to drive for Ferrari. And for years it seemed like it would never happen.

But a break clause in the Mercedes contract he signed less than a year ago has allowed him to realise his ambition.

For a man who has won seven world championships, there is little left to achieve in the sport.

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On the other hand, when you have seven world championships, perhaps all you think about is the eighth. Especially when you felt you were unfairly denied that accolade, and winning it would establish you as the sole driver with the most F1 titles.

Mercedes and Hamilton have enjoyed a scarcely believable partnership, but in the Italian team, the British driver will achieve his dreams just by stepping into the cockpit.

Should he indeed reach that elusive eighth title at what is likely his final destination in F1, he will gloriously bring down the curtain in the team he dreamt of winning with since a child.

So, will Hamilton be doubting his decision?

Ultimately, whether Hamilton lives to regret his move depends on what weighs stronger in his mind.

Is it that dream drive in red? Or a determined desire to dispel the demons of 2021 and stand alone, undisputed, as the most successful driver the sport has ever seen? It could turn out that Mercedes would have been a better bet to become an eight-time world champion.

The two aspirations are not mutually exclusive, though. Perhaps at Ferrari, Hamilton can achieve both dreams.

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