Red Bull face BIG F1 title threat from one driver (and it’s not Lando Norris)

Red Bull’s dominance of Formula 1 has been compromised.

The Milton Keynes-based squad has comfortably led the field ever since the regulation change at the start of 2022 which took F1 into a new era, nailing the shift to a new form of aerodynamics and operating from anywhere between a few tenths to a full second per lap ahead of their languishing rivals.

But now, thanks to a combination of their own development path becoming less obvious and the fact that the teams they had once left in their dust are making technical progress at a much greater rate, they face a genuine challenge at the top.

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The fifth round of the 2024 season in China, six races ago now, was probably the last time Red Bull had the outright fastest car on the grid. Since then Ferrari and Mercedes have both drawn significantly closer on sheer pace, taking pole position in Monaco and Canada respectively, but it is McLaren who have truly reined in the Bulls.

The papaya outfit have shot forward from the midfield to become the quickest team in a stunningly short amount of time, particularly impressive given they toiled towards the back at the beginning of the 2023 campaign and underwent significant changes to personnel and team structure into to halt their downslide slide.

McLaren won at Miami as Lando Norris took his first victory, and should probably have followed that up with success in both Canada a fortnight ago and Spain last weekend. Norris himself admitted he had the fastest car in Barcelona.

“Today we were the quickest - we had the best car out there and I didn’t maximise it,” Norris said after finishing second behind Max Verstappen despite starting on pole. “The start is down to me. With a good start we easily should have won.”

That Verstappen was still able to prevail in both Montreal and Barcelona is testament to the fact that, even if Red Bull no longer holds a pure pace advantage over its rivals, the Dutchman is driving at a level his rivals simply cannot match.

Norris may well have the machinery to duke it out with him, then, but his inexperience at the very front of the field means Red Bull and Verstappen are still relatively comfortable.

The threat that the leading team and driver face, then, is not from Norris, but from much closer to home.

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In Spain Sergio Perez once again failed to deliver a decent performance. The Mexican, carrying a grid penalty after he drove a damaged car back to the pits in Canada, was way off the pace of Verstappen and toiled so far down the field that he was unable to offer any kind of strategic use to his team-mates fight for the win.

The 34-year-old – whose contract with the team was renewed earlier this month, keeping him in his seat until at least the end of 2025 – has now earned just eight points in the last four races and hasn’t finished on the podium since that race in Shanghai six rounds ago.

He is a lowly fifth in the drivers’ standings, a whopping 108 points off Verstappen and behind both Ferraris and Norris.

Verstappen and Red Bull still boast leads of 69 and 60 points in the drivers’ and constructors’ standings respectively, but those advantages could be chipped away if it rival teams are able to consolidate their improvements, and if Perez continues to make very little contribution.

After the chequered flag, Team principal Christian Horner repeated what has now become a weekly post-race call for Perez to improve, saying: "Sergio had a great start to the year. We just need him to get back to that form that he had in the first four or five races. We know he can do it. It's just getting him into the right headspace to deliver."

Throughout his career Perez has demonstrated that he is a competent and quick Formula racer. He won a race and regularly finished on the podium with Force India in cars which were very rarely expected to challenge at the front, and tyre management, speed around street circuits and consistency have been particular strengths of his.

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Horner then is surely right that the issue Perez is suffering from is psychological rather than down to a lack of talent, skill or speed – he has demonstrated all of those in abundance since he first graduated to F1 in 2011.

But for now, those assets have been replaced by weaknesses in the form of poor qualifying pace, in-race errors and a clear lack of self-belief. The result is that Perez is hardly delivering any points of his own and is unable to help Verstappen maximise his.

Unless Perez bucks his own disappointing trend, his poor form rather than the menace of Norris will represent the biggest obstacle Red Bull face as they look to retain both titles.

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