How Hamilton Ferrari switch affects Ricciardo seat chances

The old phrase 'good things come to those who wait' tends not to be used too often in Formula 1, as time doesn't wait for anyone in the paddock.

Split-second decisions are frequently made in all aspects of F1, whether that's completing an overtake or signing a contract, which could make or break a career.

Lewis Hamilton's shock decision to move from Mercedes to Ferrari for 2025 has sent F1's silly season into overdrive, with several drivers' futures now looking less set in stone than they were in 2023.

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One of those drivers whose future was reshaped by Hamilton's move to Maranello is Australian Daniel Ricciardo, an eight-time Grand Prix winner and in year two of his F1 comeback with the Faenza-based RB team.

Ricciardo has aspirations of returning to Red Bull following an ill-fated stint at McLaren, but with several other seats opening up, the Australian might want to look elsewhere for 2025.

So, where could Ricciardo go for 2025?

Red Bull's number 1 target but not guaranteed

Following his departure from McLaren in 2022, Ricciardo opted not to take up a full-time drive for 2023, instead settling on a reserve driver role with Red Bull.

Ricciardo wasn't just hired to sit in the Red Bull hospitality unit to entertain guests, far from it, with the Australian doing simulator work to help Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen extract the maximum out of the RB19.

By July 2023, Ricciardo was back behind the wheel, testing Red Bull's RB19 in a Pirelli tyre test at Silverstone, setting respectable times and was watched on by Red Bull team principal Christian Horner. After his test, Ricciardo jumped straight back into a race seat as Nyck de Vries was dismissed from AlphaTauri after the Dutchman endured a poor start to the season.

An earlier-than-expected move back to Red Bull was also mooted after Perez suffered a dreadful run of form, which put his chances of securing runners-up honours in the drivers' championship at risk.

Perez has a contract until the end of 2024 but is not guaranteed a new deal and doesn't just have Ricciardo to worry about as the only in-house option for Red Bull, with his RB teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, enjoying an impressive 2023, outclassing the more experienced de Vries and helping AlphaTauri finish eighth in the constructors' championship.

With RB receiving parts from Red Bull's RB19 for the VCARB 01, 2024 becomes a season-long shootout between Ricciardo and Tsunoda, with the victor's prize potentially being Perez's seat.

Mercedes and Aston Martin potential landing spots?

Unlike 2023, Ricciardo has alternative options if the second Red Bull seat is unavailable.

One of those options could be Mercedes, a team which had previously courted him as a potential reserve driver for 2023 before he settled for Red Bull.

Despite Red Bull's advisor Helmut Marko's insistence that Ricciardo won't be an option for Mercedes, the Australian can't be ruled out as a contender for the drive for two reasons.

Firstly, he still has plenty of speed, as Ricciardo was able to out-qualify Perez in Mexico, producing several decent performances in a tricky car. Secondly, Ricciardo is highly marketable due to his easy-going personality, which has made him a fan favourite and his ability to sell the sport in America.

But Ricciardo faces stiff competition for the Mercedes seat, not least from Aston Martin's Fernando Alonso, another name linked with Hamilton's seat.

If Alonso were to leave, an opportunity could open up for Ricciardo at Aston Martin if the team wanted to hire another star driver. Another reason for Ricciardo to be enticed by Aston Martin is the opportunity to become the leader of a team set to receive Honda's support in 2026.

Return to Alpine and a gamble with Audi not out of the question

After leaving Red Bull in 2018, Ricciardo switched to Renault for 2019, staying with the Anglo-French team until the end of 2020, finishing on the podium twice at the Eifel and Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.

However, Ricciardo's split from the Enstone-based team went down badly, with high-ranking Renault group management, such as Luca De Meo the group's CEO, rumoured to be annoyed by the Australian's departure.

But there might be a way back to Team Enstone if Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon extend their current deals past 2025 or Ricciardo elects to move somewhere familiar.

The other left-field option could be moving to Sauber for 2025 in preparation for Audi's eventual takeover in 2026.

Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu had underwhelming 2024 seasons and are nearing the end of their current deals, putting further pressure on them to perform or face losing their drives.

So where does Ricciardo go?

With all options considered, Ricciardo's first option should be to remain inside the Red Bull family and aim for the second seat alongside Verstappen.

Ricciardo's a safe pair for the second seat, as he still has the speed to compete with the best and can pick up the baton if Verstappen makes a rare mistake or suffers a technical failure.

However, if he is overlooked for the second seat at Red Bull, Ricciardo's second option should be Aston Martin if Alonso moves to Mercedes or Lance Stroll's F1 journey ends abruptly.

It won't be easy, but Ricciardo has on-track and off-track qualities to become a real asset for Aston Martin. The Australian's previous experience at other top teams can help Aston Martin's rate of development and help nurture Stroll to become a better driver.

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