F1 aero expert makes Italian Grand Prix prediction as FERRARI look for famous win

After a very orange celebration when Max Verstappen took pole in Zandvoort a week ago, Saturday was a very red day at Monza as Carlos Sainz delighted the crowd by securing the number one slot on the grid.

It was a very close three-way fight between him and his team-mate Charles Leclerc, who finished third, and reigning world champion Verstappen in second place, the trio separated by just 67 thousandths of a second.

A Ferrari win at Monza is arguably the biggest result in Formula 1. But what are the chances that either of the Ferraris can flood the Monza podium with the Tifosi? Well let's dive into the data to find out.

READ MORE: Monza ‘CURSE’ looming over Verstappen ahead of Italian Grand Prix

Race Pace Analysis

The most important session with the long runs was FP2, in which most teams ran the medium tyres to understand the deg. Picking the best driver of each team, we can see that Red Bull looked an easy 0.3 sec faster than Ferrari – a big margin around Monza.

Similarly, the surprise package is Albon, with Williams the fastest on the straights and showing a really good race pace during FP2 while McLaren and Mercedes looked evenly paced.

The good news for Ferrari is that Monza is notoriously hard to overtake at due to the corners before and after the long straights, and a Ferrari with their top speed advantage and proper battery deployment might be able to fend off the Red Bull.

The bad news is because of their setup choice this weekend (low downforce), Ferrari are destined to have more tyre degradation issues than Red Bull. Additionally, it's two Ferraris vs one Red Bull up top, so strategy may play a key role.

According to the data, the race pace order is: Red Bull > Williams > Ferrari > McLaren > Mercedes.

However looking at how the race weekend is panning out, my race pace order is: Red Bull > Ferrari ~Williams > Mercedes ~ McLaren

Race Strategy

Strategy 1

With the new tyre compounds being more resilient to deg the length of Monza's pit lane, the preferred strategy is a one-stop race with the hard compound tyre being the main protagonist.

Strategy 2

Some may even decide to start on the medium to have more flexibility, with a good level of grip at the start, or risk starting on the soft to try and make up places in the early stages.

Strategy 3

The two-stop strategy is conditioned by the fact the pit lane is very long and therefore additional time is lost at each pit stop, but it could be a valid choice if the race is neutralised at any point.

Shubham Sangodkar is a former F1 Aerodynamicist with a Master's in Racing Car Design specialising in F1 Aerodynamics and F1 Data Analysis. He also posts aerodynamics content on his YouTube channel, which can be found here.

READ MORE: F1 Italian Grand Prix weather forecast – Monza set for record chase

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