Why does Monza often throw up SURPRISE results and will we see one in 2023?

The 2023 Italian Grand Prix is set to take place this weekend, and Formula 1 fans will be hopeful that this will be the race where a proverbial spanner is thrown into the Red Bull works.

Off the back of the thrilling Dutch Grand Prix last weekend in which Max Verstappen took his ninth consecutive race win in front of his home fans to equal the record for the most amount of consecutive race victories, F1 heads to Monza and what is the oldest circuit still used on the F1 calendar.

Verstappen will be hoping to surpass Sebastian Vettel and Alberto Ascari's record by claiming his tenth consecutive win, but if previous editions of the Italian GP are anything to go by, it's not going to be all plain sailing for the Dutchman.

Monza is known for throwing up surprise results, like when Pierre Gasly took advantage of Lewis Hamilton's 10 second penalty in 2020 to win his first ever Grand Prix and just the second for his AlphaTauri team.

Or when Daniel Ricciardo came home to take victory as part of a McLaren 1-2 in 2021 after championship protagonists Hamilton and Verstappen had taken each other out of the race with a collision on lap 26.

Going further back, Vettel claimed the first of his 53 race wins at Monza in 2008 with the Toro Rosso team having sensationally taken poll in the wet on the Saturday, and then leading the race from start to finish.

READ MORE: Verstappen equals record with victory in DRAMATIC rain-hit Dutch GP

What is it about Monza that produces these results?

For a circuit that has been on the F1 calendar every year except for one since the sport's first year in 1950, it's perhaps expected that we might have seen a few more surprise results over the years than at other tracks.

However, considering it has the highest average speed of any track on the F1 calendar, you'd also be forgiven for thinking that the fastest car each season would win the Italian GP, and that is how it has panned out fairly often since it's inception in 1950.

In 27 of the 72 Italian GP's, the driver that has won at Monza has gone on to win the drivers' championship, and 32 of the 64 races since the constructors' championship was introduced have been won by the car that won that year's constructors' title.

What we have seen during the surprise results mentioned above is the distinct lack of front runners due to problems. For example, when Gasly won in 2020, he was joined on the podium by Carlos Sainz and Lance Stroll who hadn't been regular podium visitors that year.

Hamilton's penalty had ruled him out of contention, Verstappen had retired from the race due to an issue and Valtteri Bottas in the other Mercedes had struggled to get past cars considerably slower than his, and finished fifth.

In 2021, the two fastest cars had knocked themselves out of the race, whilst Sergio Perez's penalty meant that he could only finish fifth in the Red Bull.

In 2008, Vettel was joined on the podium by Heikki Kovalainen and Robert Kubica, whilst championship protagonists Felipe Massa and Hamilton were down in sixth and seventh having struggled in the wet all weekend.

Perhaps it's the high speed corners. Perhaps it's the world-famous Tifosi cheering on their favourite Ferrari driver. Whatever it is, this famous old track seems to unsettle favourites.

Will we see a surprise in 2023?

Monza wasn't a problem for our championship winner last year, however. Verstappen came through and won the race despite starting seventh due to a five-place grid penalty, and will be hoping for the same again this year (other than the penalty).

This season more than ever, F1 is crying out for a Gasly story, with Red Bull winning all 13 races of the season so far, and Verstappen himself winning 11 of those 13.

Could Ferrari pull themselves together in front of their home fans and produce a shock result? Could Mercedes challenge Red Bull having looked very quick last time out in Zandvoort. Or could Fernando Alonso come through to take his first race victory since the 2013 Spanish GP?

Anything is possible at the circuit known as 'The Temple of Speed'.

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