Ferrari - is third a realistic target in 2021?

Where do you start with Ferrari's 2020 season? A woefully underpowered engine and a car that laboured with drag condemned the Scuderia to its worst championship finish since 1980.

Yet many of the issues the team suffered were masked by an incredible season on a personal level from Charles Leclerc, who raced the car to positions it did not deserve to finish.

With Sebastian Vettel gone and Carlos Sainz arriving, team principal Mattia Binotto has indicated the target for 2021 is third in the constructors' championship. But is that possible given the struggles of last year?

Can a new power unit turn things around?

The biggest problem last year, as previously mentioned, was the performance of the power unit. It is no coincidence Ferrari struggled after FIA technical directives were issued in late 2019 regarding fuel flow and oil-burning.

With the fallout spilling over into 2020, not only Ferrari but customer teams Haas and Alfa Romeo were disadvantaged from the start.

Following dyno testing, the redesign for this year is understood to have offered cause for optimism. Although we cannot know until pre-season testing whether fortunes have changed, the new specification cannot be as poor performance-wise.

Where gains could be made with the power unit, though, there is a knock-on effect. With an estimated 60 per cent of last year's cars carrying over into this season, Ferrari's aerodynamic deficiencies may still linger.

With engine development, the team has used up its allocation of development tokens and so has been unable to make chassis upgrades to the SF1000.

It is all very well having a good power-unit, but if the car continues to struggle aerodynamically, you are not going to finish third. As simple as that.

With Vettel gone is Leclerc ready to lead?

On form or not, one of the main reasons Vettel was signed by Aston Martin is for his leadership ability and winning mentality. The four-time champion at least played a key role in restructuring the Scuderia into a race-winning force.

Obviously, his final season at Maranello has marred his time with Ferrari but do not be fooled, Ferrari has lost a valuable asset.

It is now up to Leclerc to continue the Ferrari resurgence using the two years he has spent at the team to aid his cause. No doubt he has the talent, but this is where we see how competent he is in the garage.

Sainz's arrival from McLaren will not be frowned upon either. His input was crucial in the British-team's revival. Looking at his 2020 results, he could have finished higher than sixth in the drivers' standings but for some rotten luck.

The dynamic between the two will be vital if Ferrari is to hit its target this season.

Breaking the midfield battle

It is often said in F1 that finding the all-important tenth-of-a-second gain to leap ahead of your midfield rivals is so elusive. For Ferrari to be ahead of McLaren, Aston Martin and Alpine, it will likely need to find three times that amount. That is a huge task.

Alpine will be keen to impress after its rebrand from Renault, with a certain Fernando Alonso returning to the fold.

McLaren, like Ferrari, has spent development tokens on the power unit in integrating a Mercedes engine into the back end of the MCL35M. That should provide a gain in performance compared to the Renault engine that propelled the team to third in last season's constructors' title race.

And then Aston Matin, with Vettel on board, will only improve. New infrastructure is arriving at the Silverstone base, and the car will likely evolve towards last season's all-conquering Mercedes W11.

Overall, Ferrari has a monumental challenge ahead of it to come close to third but if any team can achieve it, then it is Ferrari.

But if the team makes a poor start to the season then do not be surprised that focus will swiftly turn to the new car under the dramatic regulations for 2022.

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